A forward-looking report on the Mediterranean in 2050 highlights the urgent need for action. Population growth and climate change make access to water a priority. Seawards https://www.seawards.fr is mobilizing in this direction with its innovative seawater desalination technology, cryo-separation.
What is the purpose of Plan Bleu https://planbleu.org? For over 40 years, this initiative has enabled the countries bordering the Mediterranean, meeting in Barcelona at an intergovernmental conference organized by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to mobilize for the future. The aim is to raise awareness among Mediterranean decision-makers of the region’s environmental and sustainable development issues. Against this backdrop, a forward-looking report entitled “The Mediterranean to 2050” was published last January. It reveals that, in the absence of major policy changes, the Mediterranean basin will experience a degradation of its ecosystems and conflict over access to resources, including water. This document, which mobilized some one hundred experts over a period of four years, takes into account a number of dimensions, including environmental pressures linked to economic activities and demographics, as well as the global context and issues of governance. Unlike the two previous foresight exercises carried out in 1989 and 2008, this new study identifies major risks of crisis or disruption, and highlights 6 major trends. “Of these six, three are scenarios of accelerated environmental degradation, while the other three are transition paths towards sustainable development for the region”, says the study.
Mediterranean region warming faster than average
In terms of climate, the region is warming faster than the global average, with temperatures expected to rise by 2.3°C and sea levels by 40 cm by 2050. This could lead to a structural transformation of the ocean ecosystem. Another finding is that water stress is set to affect at least 290 million people by 2050, compared with 180 million in 2020. This means that new solutions are essential. Desalination could be one of them, and this is where Seawards comes in, with its innovative cryo-separation technology, currently being deployed from Marseille. All the more so as, although the demographic transition has been completed in two-thirds of the country, this will not prevent an overall population growth of some 150 million by 2050, with highly differentiated trends between the countries to the east and south of the basin (+50%), on the one hand, and those to the north, which are stagnating or in decline, on the other. Urbanization rates are also set to exceed 70% everywhere, for a population estimated at between 630 and 690 millions.
The occupation of the territory will be characterized by a concentration of populations and activities in the metropolises, but also on the coast, with the additional pressures on the sea that this entails.
“This analysis points to the need for far-reaching reforms, even radical changes,” continues the study. To avoid the risks of continued degradation of ecosystems, fragmentation of societies, conflicts over access to resources and marginalization of the region on the world stage, 3 virtuous scenarios aim to establish Euro-Mediterranean partnerships that are both carbon neutral and well integrated into globalization, the advent of a new model of sustainable development that is specifically planned and involves civil society and, finally, the mobilization of the international community to better manage the sea and coasts. This is also the aim of the work carried out by the NGO, Institut Méditerranéen de l’Eau (IME), which encourages reflection, study and exchange on fundamental water-related issues, with due respect for the environment and for sustainable, harmonious development.
The Mediterranean could thus become a laboratory for new solutions. “Cooperation must be established, particularly between Europe and Africa”, explains the study. These include the development of renewable energies, the fight against water leakage, etc. The current report will also be highlighted at the third United Nations Conference on the Ocean, to be held next June in Nice. The aim? To avoid a “business as usual” scenario, i.e., no change from current practices. The Mediterranean is worth it !
